Saturday, March 22, 2003

Zimwatch: Endgame?

Is Mugabe's rule coming to an end. The opposition seem to be hopeful giving the government a two week deadline to come to a settlement, although the police are still following orders. Amazingly, for those who see comrade Bob as a two dimensional figure out of Soviet central casting, he's actually agreed to South African churchmen mediating between the government and the MDC. The church hierachies in Zim are either broadly pro-Bob (Anglicans) or pro-Morgan (Catholics).

Libyan oil's drying up and South African electricity may be cut off, for non payment. And what did everyone from Peter Tatchell to Peter Oborne say was the easiest way to put pressure on Bob? Why cut off the power supplies. This seems to being done and the usually indulgent South Africans and Libyans don't seem to be bailing him out this time. Probably a mixture of daunting costs and a simple calculation that Bob's not got long.

For what it's worth, I hear that MDC people who were studiously ignored by officialdom are now being, if not well treated, at least acknowledged. There is also the feeling that anything could set off a revolt in the two main cities. Escape plans are being laid.

Could this be 1989 for Zim, but without the TV cameras? Wouldn't it be odd if the world media were caught off guard.


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