Airstrip One

Skating away on the Thin Ice of the New Day 12th November 2002, 20.13

Why does NATO still exist when its purpose appears to duplicate that of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe? The answer lies in the inertia that has persisted since the Cold War when West Europe, facing the massed armies across the Fulda Gap, needed this institution and ensured that it did not go the way of its long-lost regional counterparts, SEATO and CENTO.

However, the events of the 11th September 2001 reshaped international affairs in a way that is just beginning to become clear. The United States remains the lodestar by which other countries orient themselves and many are starting to vocally address the same security concerns that the United States has identified and declare an 'interest' in missile defence. Japanese officials have been reported as accelerating their co-operation and deployment of anti-missile systems since the declaration of North Korea that it continued to develop a nuclear weapons programme. Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, also gave the strongest indication yet that Britain wished to develop an anti-missile system in co-operation with the US.

With the redundancy of NATO, it is difficult to see how the future relations of North America and Europe will develop. One area that may provide a model is East Asia where the United States is economically integrated with the local countries and supports regional institutions that do not compromise its power. This is complemented with bilateral relationships to those nations too powerful to ignore or tied by security interests.

This also means that the system of international relations has tipped back towards the application of national sovereignty and against the promoters of transnationalism. They had the opportunity to develop their ideology within the security umbrella provided by the Cold War and have found that a multipolar world is inimical to their ideal view of the world. That could possibly explain why many transnationalists on the Continent are adapting a halfway house with the rush towards a sovereign United States of Europe in the Convention. This development has the best chance of representing their version of world governance.

Perhaps Britain's future in the medium term looks similar to Japan's, an offshore island looking nervously at an aloof, authoritarian neighbour with whom it has strong economic ties.