Airstrip One

Not good - 28th November 2002, 22.41

Current developments within the swirls of diplomacy surrounding the European Convention could prove disastrous for the United Kingdom since the renewed Franco-German offensive in EU circles is moving towards a common foreign and security policy. Blair will find himself isolated and facing a United Europe when our historic goal has always been to maintain the balance of power on the Continent between different nations.

France and Germany are going to submit a proposal to the defence working group of the Convention that envisages an integrated leadership capacity, training system and strategic doctrine, external to NATO. This rips apart New Labour's strategy of favouring a limited EU capability complementing US leadership.

The document talked about establishing 'multinational forces with integrated leadership capacities, regardless of their Nato actions'.

Both countries have talked about implementation of this proposal using the process of 'enhanced co-operation' and ushering in the heralded 'two speed Europe'. Of course, this deepened integration does not prevent the basic unification that would be achieved by the Constitution. The Danes are aghast to find that their hard fought opt-outs are so much smoke in the new Europe, especially after they tried so hard to act like good Europeans.

The Axis is a paper tiger and may provide a comfort blanket in times when a realistic assessment of security is required. Although Mr T has his own view here.