Tuesday, March 19, 2002

Now we get a Vietnam

It seems that all the ducks are in line for an invasion of Iraq apart from the people. The who? You know, the voters. The Guardian have a poll purporting to show that the majority of British voters are against a war on Iraq by a margin of 51%-35%. I can't find a detailed breakdown, so you'll have to do with this:

Labour 46% Anti. 43% For
Conservatives 48% Anti. 41% For
Lib Dems 67% Anti. 21% For

The sample was of 1000 adults, leading to a margin of error of about 3%, so only the Labour result is likely to be for the military action.

This doesn't mean a couple of things. This is not against the war in Afghanistan and it probably won't last once our boys are in Iraq.

What is interesting is that the Tory majority is not that narrow (excluding the don't knows it 54%-46%) and that Labour supporters have the lowest proportion of don't knows (5%, compared to 11% and 12%) which may point to a proportion of the answers being "I suppose" types of answers resting on loyalty to the government rather than conviction. So the pro-invasion camp may be (slightly) overstated.

However, if there is a disaster in Iraq (unlikely, but the army aren't so sure) then this could cause mid term discomfort.


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