Airstrip One

Further detail on the defence concessions that Blair made over the weekend have come to light. His prepared positionover the summer was a rejection of an independent military capability for Member States of the European Union. The existence of this group was considered to be a possible rival for NATO and would undermine the effectiveness of the alliance. Blair agreed that certain Member States could unite in "structured co-operation" without the consent of others although he remained opposed to the symbolic location of the Franco-German defence staff outside Brussels.

Speculation about Blair's concessions on this issue could encompass a number of motivations on his part. The simplest is a possible acceptance of ongoing preparations that France and Germany were making, though this does not fit well with the haggling that characterises EU diplomatic practice.

Before this meeting, France were making public statements calling for a quick recognition of Iraqi sovereignty and a short timetable towards elections. With their threat of a veto over the Libyan deal, it was clear that French demands were reinforced by the implied use of a veto if their demands were not discussed or met.

After this meeting, France was making public statements calling for a quick recognition of Iraqi sovereignty and a short timetable towards Iraqi control. However, Gerhard Schroeder promised support and aid in his meeting with Bush and stated that "differences" had been buried.

Was the softening of the French stance and the American rapprochement with the Germans eased by the concessions that Blair made on Saturday? Were British interests in Europe conceded for German support and French abstention at the United Nations?

One must recall that Blair would not consider these concessions that important since he is ideologically inclined to promote European trends. The diplomatic threads of Europe and Iraq are linked but it is very difficult to construct the narrative that defines these actors and their statements. The speculations above are one possible scenario and probably not the best one.

(24th September 2003, 22.27)