Airstrip One

The Sick Man of Europe

One of the problems with the wishlists of Euroscepticism is that those who consider the EU an eater of liberty tend to privilege certain possible outcomes because these complement their vision. Just as the Europhiles see a certain inevitability with "ever closer union", so some Eurosceptics prophesy that the EU will fall apart due to its currency scheme or end itself in an immolatory Ragnarok as a 21st century Soviet Union.

One of the more recent subjects taken up is the comparison of Germany and Japan, of rich nations slowly foundering against a deflationary iceberg. Hamish MacLeod gives a more realistic outcome: of slow growth and gradual reform over the next two to three years. A more radical discontinuity depends upon the growth of Germany's neighbours. If their growth is slow and unemployment in Germany rises to above five million, then a constituency for radical change may well develop.