Airstrip One

Playing Chicken

The diplomatic debate on authorising a UN resolution to allow renewed inspection of Iraq for weapons of mass destruction and set out further consequences, if there is no co-operation, remains fluid and unresolved. The French are set on introducing their own resolution, if necessary, to avoid giving the US sanction for force.

Fergal Keane still views the diplomatic dance as a prelude to war for the jaws of the trap do not allow Iraq any manoevre. The US/UK resolution includes a demand to disarm with which Iraq will not comply, triggering the breach. Keane argues that both Russia and France will acquiesce to the US in abstaining after obtaining maximum concessions in the trade-off for their votes, probably over a six-week period.

However, the introduction of a resolution by Paris would alter this argument by providing an alternative course of action for Iraq by another western power. If France and Russia are playing a game of brinkmanship, they may raise their stakes too high as the US will bring the resolution to a vote and move outside the Security Council arena.

If the Security Council is rendered irrelevant in this instant, it is unclear if the US will return to it for sanctioning other actions in its current and future 'wars on terror'.