Airstrip One

Fallout over Germany 3rd October 2002

Chancellor Schroeder dined with Chirac last night to repair the snub given in flying to Great Britain rather then France for his first foreign meeting after his election victory. Nevertheless both leaders share a hostile attitude towards Anglo-American actions and this is being used as a common base for a rapprochement. France's two-step approach of a further resolution to sanction military action, if inspections were to fail, remains unacceptable to the United States, but ensures diplomatic support in Russia and in the European Union. The common foreign policy has fallen by the wayside as the pro-war grouping (Great Britain, Spain and Italy) are opposed by the 'French school', with Germany at an extreme.

Despite the fears that attend the possible outcomes of any war in the Gulf, there are a number of positive short-term developments. One is the impotence and incoherence of the European Union in this crisis, which argues that the institutional limits of the foreign common policy have already been reached. The second is the possible neutering of the United Nations after its revival when the balance of power broke down after 1989. The power of the Security Council depends to a large extent on the recognition that it receives from the United States, and, if this is withdrawn, the body may well sink into irrelevance.