Airstrip One

Simple/Complicated

Javier Solana, High Foreign Hottentot, of the Planners' Paradise, has warned, on the state owned television channel of one of the subsidiary departments, that a military strike by Israel would "complicate" the diplomatic situation. Complicate for whom? Not for Israel, who, if successful, would remove a strategic threat. Not for some observers of national sovereignty who view any such defensive manoevre as, at best, a delaying tactic before the inevitable adoption of nuclear weapons by one or more Middle Eastern states.

Why does Solana say this nonsense? To preserve the fiction that diplomacy and soft power work as opposed to cynical realpolitik or the military strength of a Jacksonian foreign policy. Both of the latter options require big sticks to allow the snakes to hiss without releasing any venom. (In this regard, Iran has done enough in support of terrorism for Israel to turn around and drop whatever it wants in retaliation.)

The Iranians say that they will not negotiate the end of their nuclear programme and the EU's Big Three can either acquiesce with a figleaf or spin this failure as a transition to the rather tarnished UN. One doesn't feel very sorry for France and Germany, circumventing the UN Security Council with their unilateral diplomatic ventures, whaen they are running on empty. The world is noticing their decline.