Airstrip One

Simple/Complicated

Javier Solana, High Foreign Hottentot, of the Planners' Paradise, has warned, on the state owned television channel of one of the subsidiary departments, that a military strike by Israel would "complicate" the diplomatic situation. Complicate for whom? Not for Israel, who, if successful, would remove a strategic threat. Not for some observers of national sovereignty who view any such defensive manoevre as, at best, a delaying tactic before the inevitable adoption of nuclear weapons by one or more Middle Eastern states.

Why does Solana say this nonsense? To preserve the fiction that diplomacy and soft power work as opposed to cynical realpolitik or the military strength of a Jacksonian foreign policy. Both of the latter options require big sticks to allow the snakes to hiss without releasing any venom. (In this regard, Iran has done enough in support of terrorism for Israel to turn around and drop whatever it wants in retaliation.)

The Iranians say that they will not negotiate the end of their nuclear programme and the EU's Big Three can either acquiesce with a figleaf or spin this failure as a transition to the rather tarnished UN. One doesn't feel very sorry for France and Germany, circumventing the UN Security Council with their unilateral diplomatic ventures, whaen they are running on empty. The world is noticing their decline.

Bowman's Holiday

The Bowman radio system has finally been introduced into active service after delays and additional funding. In this, it has followed the usual path of procurement projects applied by the MOD. New Labour was quick to 'reform' the process with 'smart procurement' although the results of the shining heat of New Labour spin appear worse than the old boy public service incompetence of their predecessors.

Last night a senior Army source said: "This is basically the new showpiece bit of kit for the British Army - and it is a disaster. It is eight years late in being introduced, has cost the British taxpayer millions in extra funding and now, if not used properly, presents a safety hazard to tens of thousands of British soldiers.

"Not being able to use the radios at full power will limit their range and standing two metres away while a system is switched on is just not practicable in a war situation.

"Last year our forces in Iraq were being hit by ambushes regularly in Al Amarah and Basra. They should not have to worry about whether their radios are giving them radiation poisoning."

Now our boys are glow-in-the-dark targets.

Things are hotting up on the global warming front. The Daily Telegraph's computer-modelling experiment suggests greenhouse gases could raise temperatures by 10 degrees C or more. This could be good or it could be disastrous - we don't know.

But what we do know is that it's better to be safe than sorry.

We also know who the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases is. Our old pal the good ol' U.S. of A. And we know that our old pal proposes to do precisely sweet f.a. about it.

So what do we do? Well, we could try diplomacy, but let's face it, diplomacy ain't working - just remember Kyoto and all that. It reminds me of, what was that place?, terrible threat to humanity it was, name escapes me, anyway - there were all these bleeding-hearts bleating "give diplomacy more time", blithely ignoring the fact that giving more time to somebody who's working for your destruction only gives *you* less time. Quite rightly, the U.S.A. ignored them & went for pre-emptive action, with - as is now universally acknowledged - the best possible results for herself, the target country, and the rest of the world.

I say we should follow her noble precedent. No more shilly-shallying. It's time for The Rest of the World to take decisive action against the threat now confronting us. Obviously we can expect a certain amount of collateral damage, but that'll be a small price to pay for saving the world, as even the surviving Americans will joyfully agree. And if it turns out global warming was a lot of bull, well, we'll give her a decent electoral system and she'll still be grateful.

She loves freedom, after all.

Basra Watch

The Iraqi election has proved, beyond doubt, that the Iraqis will vote on religious and ethnic lines, proving that there are no institutions that span these fissures. The outline of the Iraqi regime is becoming clear: Kurdistan will operate as an autonomous fief on the clear understanding that the Shi'as obtain majority rule. The Arab Sunnis have lost ground with their strategy of violence. They will gradually lose their support as the Ba'athists and the Islamicists are whittled away in a war of attrition.

That said, British soldiers face a continued campaign by the terrorists. Basra was targeted by bombs as the Sunnis direct their anger at the new centre of Shi'a authority. The Holy Cities may contain the ayatollahs who have co-operated with the coalition forces but Basra has the population, the position and the potential to act as Iraq's entrepot. That makes teh city a prime target for economic disruption:

A fourth roadside bomb in four days rocked Basra today, injuring one civilian. It was the third recent attack on Iraqi soldiers, following the death of four ordnance experts yesterday.

Whilst the Iraqi political landscape is now structured by the nascent modus vivendi between Kurd and Shi'a, the painful birth pangs of the new democracy will be accompanied by the submission of the Sunni, who played a bad hand worse.

Iran away

Just a quick post to point readers to the War Nerd's latest column on Iran.