Airstrip One

Go Rocco Go

I don't know what it is, but I like Rocco Buttiglione. Well I do know, he gets up the noses of all the right people (but then again so does George Bush and I don't like him). He's also honest about his personal views which for a politician, especially a Cisalpine politician, is good. Of course the left seem to wish to gut society so that they can rebuild it - and attacking religion is probably the closest thing one can get to social cancer short of passing out crack free to school children. I digress.

Here's another reason to like Buttiglione, he was against the war, and this was while serving in a pro war administration. Not just a make belief Michael Gove style conservative, but a real Conservative. Truly too good for the European Commission.

Quagmire Antennae

Most politicians would appear humbled after the setbacks that they have encountered in Iraq following their own wilful manipulation of intelligence. Such politicians would not be Blair.

Where Blair always set himself apart from Bush was his belief, encouraged by the Arabists of the Foreign Office and the anti-Zionist sympathies of his own left-wing, that the problems of the Middle East would be cured by the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This has proved a foundation stone for his championing of the peace plan and road map: two metaphors that have almost been abandoned as the intifada has strengthened apace.

Now that Bush has been re-elected, he is a president more welcome than his irresolute rival for defending sovereignty and undermining international institutions (like the French). Blair, as his closest ally, intends to use some of the capital provided by the American people, to bring peace to the Middle East. As always, Blair's vaunted efforts are constrained by the policies set out by the White House. On Breakfast with Frost, Bush Senior set out the groundrules:

I think there is an opportunity and I think Tony Blair was heard loud and clear in Washington about what he was calling for," the elder Bush told the British Broadcasting Corporation's "Breakfast with Frost" program. "There is a real opportunity. People forget that this president is the first president to call for a Palestinian state."Blair is correct, 100 percent correct. And I think he will find the president a willing and able partner, particularly if there is a change in leadership in the PLO that we can deal with more openly and with more confidence," said Bush.

If the Palestinians can organise themselves, abandon terrorism and coalesce around a leadership prepared to negotiate a peace settlement with the Israelis, then they will get the backing of the US government. Watch three fat pigs fly over Jerusalem.

If Blair thinks that his latest wheeze is better than a short term press release to shore up his image on Labour's left, ("Look at me!, I care about the Palestinians! Let's make noise and show my independence from Bush"), I'd be surprised. If he does indulge in the fantasy that he could make a difference, then this si more evidence that he loves quagmires: political, military and diplomatic.

Bottom line: this is none of Britain's business. The Arabs wish to throw the Israelis into the Sea and the Israelis don't wish to go. Throw in the history of a few wars and I can see how Jews coudl become paranoid and feel "under siege" from a world that would weep crocodile tears over a second Holocaust. Perhaps Blair could emote on their behalf.

(23.05, 9th November 2004)

Geordies fight for us

The relative paucity of analysis on the North East Referendum is a bit of a shock.

Let's go through the facts:

1. It was a constitutional change.
2. Labour and the Lib Dems were on one side - the Tories and UKIP were on another.
3. The No Campaign was both split and (at least in the official camp) shambolic.
4. The BBC were on the Yes side.

Remind you of anything? Furthermore the ground had been chosen carefully - there is a genuine sense of regional identity in the North East, it is very loyal to Labour and Tories are loathed almost as much as in Scotland. Just look at the Hartlepool election for the latter two points.

The margin of the defeat in a carefully chosen referendum is a massive setback for the Yes side on a Euro constitution referendum. How are they going to pull this one back?

Note. Posting has been interrupted on the blog for some time - apologies.

Sheikh Zayeed Dead. Long live John Peel.

Who? Only the leader of the United Arab Emirates!

Still don't care? Well isn't it nice. It should be this way with all foreign leaders and the press instead of this obsessive coverage of the American Elections.

John Peel should mean far more to me than George Bush or John Kerry.

Not even worth it for the Oil

Britain 'is insulated from oil price rises' according to Roger Bootle. I'd rather think that we were over in Iraq because of a faulty understanding of economics rather than a foolhardy belief in Arabia's readiness for democracy and America's capacity for gratitude, sadly that's not true.